Archive for December, 2008

Downtown Austin cooling

Austin CBD Condo Delivery Timeline

Austin CBD Condo Delivery Timeline

The Statesman ran an interesting article last week on the slowdown downtown.  We expect both rental rates and property values to decline through 2009 and remain depressed through early 2011 as a large number of new units enters the Central Business District.  Job growth will play a key role in determining how large or small that decline is.  Personally, I foresee potential double digit percentage declines before the market rebounds in mid 2011.  Regardless, thousands of units will be delivered to an already slow marketplace including:

For Sale:

- 360 Condominiums ~ 45 units left to sell – available now

- Shore ~ units left to sell if buyers do not close due to lack of financing – available now

- Bridges on the Park ~ 28 units remaining – available now

- Milago ~ 15 re-sales at any given time

- Nokonah ~ 10 re-sales on the market – perhaps the most at any time since it opened in 2002

- Spring ~ 220 units winter of 2009/2010.  Half under contract but TBD how many close.

- Barton Place ~ 270 units – phase I delivering spring 2010

- Four Seasons – 167 units delivering late 2009/early 2010

- W Hotel ~ 166 units delivering mid 2010

For Lease:

- Monarch ~ 305 units, roughly 50% occupied

- AMLI Phase II – 10% remain to fill

- Legacy on Town Lake ~ 172 units delivering spring 2009

- Ashton ~ 200 units delivering summer 2009

- Gables Park Plaza ~ 314 units delivering 2010

- 300 S. Lamar ~ 165 units delivering spring 2009

Compare the above to the fact that in 2005 – 2006 there were never more than 50 units or so available at any given time for purchase and the rental market was at 97% occupancy.  Now one can begin to understand why prices ran up over 17%+ annually for the last 4 years. 

Statesman Article

MBS Failures May Lead to Repercussions with Ratings Agencies

Moody's Revenue Growth 1997 - 2007

Moody's Revenue Growth 1997 - 2007

“These errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both.”

Moody’s, once the premier name in unbiased financial risk assessment, has come under fire by Congress for its involvement in the mortgage crisis by failing to properly assess the level of risk related to mortgage backed securities from major institutions such as Countrywide, Lehman Brothers and many others.  This article from the NY Times gives great explanation as to how a company once regarded for unbiased analysis was slowly morphed into a marketing machine for debt issuers through a series of events which included SEC legislation that linked the ratings agencies to the debt issuers’ capital requirements, changes in Moody’s management and taking the rating agency public which created pressure to generate shareholder earnings rather than rather than maintain the integrity of their analysis.

The Reckoning: Debt Watchdogs: Tamed or Caught Napping?

National Real Estate: Too Soon to Call a Bottom

Here’s some great commentary from USAA’s interview with one of the top macro-economic analysts on the national real estate outlook.  What’s important to note is that one must look at many indicators to have a solid grasp of the state of the national outlook, because only relying on one or two indicators may skew the picture, as was the case earlier this year with builder stocks, which rallied in the early summer before tumbling again in September.

Real Estate: News Still Too Mixed to Call a Bottom

This is our fourth in a series of interviews about the real estate market with Joseph F. Kalish, Senior Macro Strategist at Ned Davis Research, Inc.

USAA: Joe, characterize 2008 for us in terms of the real estate market.

Joe Kalish: We have a set of eight indicators that we’ve developed on the health of the real estate market. When we spoke in early February at least three of the eight were positive, and by early July we were seeing further signs of stabilization, giving us confidence that the market could find a bottom as early as the end of the year.  Then, in September, the credit crisis took another leg down, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going into government conservatorship, followed by a near-meltdown of the financial system. The hopeful signs of the early summer have all but faded, and now we see consumer sentiment just falling apart.

USAA: Let’s talk about the indicators that are most negative first.

Joe Kalish: The worst is the inventory-to-sales ratio, which in a balanced market should be six to seven months. We have more than nine months’ supply in existing homes and above 10 in new, with the weighted average about 9.5 months.

USAA: But hasn’t new home building virtually collapsed? Shouldn’t the inventory picture be better without that supply?

Joe Kalish: Yes, but we’re getting more inventory from foreclosures. The 9.5 months is a slight downtick within an upward trend dating back to 2005. Our real concern, and what makes us even more negative, is that there’s very likely a shadow inventory out there that wants to go on the market but doesn’t because the sellers won’t accept current prices.  So the 9.5 months of supply probably understates the true inventory.

USAA: What other indicators are very negative?

Joe Kalish: The S&P Homebuilders Index, which is an index of homebuilders’ stock prices, tends to bottom three to five months before the housing market does. The Index actually rose nearly 50% from its January low before falling back and finding a new low as the housing crisis became a financial crisis. The stock market looks forward, and right now it’s telling us the real estate market isn’t good.  Another negative indicator is the Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications for home purchases, which recently fell to an eight-year low. If people are interested in buying a home, they first need to fill out a mortgage application.

USAA: So are any of Ned Davis’ indicators positive at this point?

Joe Kalish: Yes, two important ones: affordability and new building activity. New building permits and housing starts have had a dramatic decline, and are now at about half of their 10-year average. This rate of decline is consistent with the cyclical troughs in housing that we saw in 1975, 1980, 1982 and 1991. If we can put a lid on foreclosures, the lack of new building will help the inventory situation.  In terms of affordability, remember that there are three factors: prices, mortgage interest rates and personal income.  The fact that prices are down while mortgage interest rates are down slightly and income growth remains positive gives us the best affordability picture we’ve had since February 2003. The problem, of course, is what could happen to incomes if we are indeed in what may be a prolonged recession.

USAA: What indicators are neutral?

Joe Kalish: We see 30-year fixed rate mortgages below 6% as being positive, while rates above 6.75% are negative.  Lately we’ve been closer to 6% and have on occasion broken through it. We’d really like to see rates get down to the 5% to 5.5% range. Remember that mortgage rates have been stable even though Treasury rates have gone way down, creating a wide spread. If the credit markets continue to unfreeze, we could see the spread with Treasuries come down, which would help affordability.  Another neutral indicator is the rate of decline in home sales. Yes, we did see a slight uptick in sales in September, but really, they’ve been in a fairly narrow range all year long. Overall, sales have been declining for three years, and it looks like the rate of decline is stabilizing. You have to stop going down before you can go up.

USAA: What’s the bottom line, Joe? Are we anywhere near out of this thing?

Joe Kalish: We have not hit bottom, and probably won’t see one until the first quarter of 2009 at the earliest. We believe that while the government has taken some steps, they really need to do more to get under the problem, either by stimulating housing demand and/or slowing the foreclosure process. They have to arrest the decline in prices Statistics now show that 16% of homeowners are underwater in their mortgages.

USAA: What kinds of actions are you calling for?

Joe Kalish: Perhaps the government buys houses or provides more capital through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The government could keep potentially foreclosed upon people in their houses by taking an equity stake and sharing in future appreciation. A big part of the problem is that much of the new supply is empty; no one is living in it. So maybe the government buys it out of foreclosure, holds it and sells it later, or turns it into government housing. We expect President-elect Obama will come out with something fairly bold because so many of the problems in the economy – and there are plenty of them – stem from the prolonged fall in house prices.

Foreclosures in Travis County

Here’s an interesting article on the Travis County foreclosure auction.  I attended the auction yesterday, and it did seem there was much more tire kicking than actual buying.  If you’d like more information on properties for the next auction, email us at: btaylor@taylorrealestateaustin.com or ltaylor@taylorrealestateaustin.com

HOME FORECLOSURES

Business is slow, even at the foreclosure auction


AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Wednesday, December 03, 2008

foreclosure-graphThere were a lot of lookers but few buyers at the year’s final foreclosure auction.

Investors who buy foreclosed properties must pay cash upfront — and these days, cash is short, even for them.

Still, about 100 people stood in a cold wind outside the Travis County courthouse on Tuesday morning to look for good deals amid scores of homes being auctioned because their owners could not keep up with the mortgage payments.

With a pocket full of cashier’s checks, real estate investor David Buttross II said he came prepared to spend up to $1 million. Buttross, a regular at the auctions, has bought 100 foreclosed houses this year but said he has slowed down because it’s harder to borrow money in the tight credit markets.

“I’m not showing up swinging as big of a bat these days,” he said.

He bought two houses Tuesday, paying $99,400 for one appraised on the tax rolls at $200,000, and $56,000 for the other, which he said is worth $120,000.

This has been a harsh year for foreclosures in the Austin area, with postings up 27 percent from 2007, according to Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. A slowing job market and a troubled economy are making it harder for people to hold on to their homes.

Some experts say the problem has peaked in Central Texas, while forecasts by research firm CoreLogic are for defaults to possibly double nationwide by the end of next year as the recession deepens and more people lose their jobs.

In past years, the auctions, held on the first Tuesday of every month, have attracted bigger crowds and more active bidding, with investors looking for homes they could repair and flip at a profit.

But lately, it seems, “nobody has cash, and cash is king,” said Brent Williamson, an Austin real estate broker who was prospecting for property on behalf of a Malaysian family looking to invest in U.S. foreclosures.

Williamson also said investors are cautious because of the uncertain housing market.

“We’re kicking the tires. We don’t know if the national housing market is going to continue to go down, so we’re watching the trends,” he said.

The investors, dressed in jeans and baseball caps, clustered in groups around agents for the lenders, who rattled off the long lists of properties up for bid. With several auctions going at once, it was hard to hear.

One investor called it “controlled chaos.”

Most of the properties are modest homes valued at less than $200,000. This month, the list included a number of more expensive properties, including one in the gated Costa Bella community on Lake Travis. The house, appraised on the tax rolls for $2.8 million, went back to the lender.

Many properties posted for foreclosure never make it to the auction; the lender either works something out with the homeowner at the last minute or decides to hold on to the house for resale.

In Travis County, only 124 of the 471 properties posted were put up for auction Tuesday, much fewer than usual.

That’s because of a recent moratorium halting foreclosures on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans until Jan. 9.

Of those 124 homes, investors bought 15; the rest went back to the lenders.

In Hays County’s auction, only one property of 71 sold to an investor; the others went back to the bank. In Williamson County’s auction, only two sold to investors.

“It was a very slow day,” said Peter Sajovich, a real estate broker who buys investment property for clients.

Sajovich said banks tend to hold off on foreclosures during the holidays.

“Around Christmastime, they don’t want to be evicting people,” he said.

Steve Glasgow, a partner in RAM Investments, said the situation is nothing like the real estate bust of the late 1980s and early ’90s, when hundreds of people in Austin lost their houses.

If banks “jump in and help people out” — by holding off on resetting adjustable-rate mortgages to higher rates, for example — “then maybe we have plateaued. If they don’t, there’s more misery on the way,” he said.

“I think people are still losing jobs, and if more people lose their jobs, more people are going to lose their homes. I don’t expect (foreclosures) to top out until the end of the first quarter of next year,” he said.

Glasgow said that buying at a foreclosure auction might be a “shrewd way sometimes to buy a property, but you are dealing in misery a lot of time. It’s sad.”

mtaboada@statesman.com, 912-2942;

snovak@statesman.com, 445-3856

Westin Hotel breaks ground in Austin

A groundbreaking event will be held on Wednesday to mark the start of the new Westin Austin at The Domain.

White Lodging Services Inc. of Merrillville, Ind. is developing the 340-room, 10-story hotel as part of Simon Property Group’s (NYSE: SPG) second phase of The Domain in North Austin. The hotel slated to open in summer 2010 will feature an indoor pool, fitness center, restaurant and more than 13,000 square feet of meeting space.

Representatives from the city of Austin, White Lodging and Simon will participate in the event, which starts at 10 a.m.

Austin jobs still increasing

Employment in the Austin-Round Rock region increased 1.9 percent between October 2007 and October 2008, outpacing many of Austin’s economic development competitors, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The local region added about 14,700 jobs in the 12-month period, bringing its total employment figure to roughly 781,000, according to the report. By comparison:

• San Jose, Calif. added 700 jobs for a 0.8 percent increase

• Raleigh, N.C. added 8,800 jobs for a 1.7 percent increase

• Nashville, Tenn. lost 2,200 jobs for a 0.3 percent decrease

• Seattle lost 1,900 jobs for a 0.1 percent decrease

• Phoenix lost nearly 50,000 jobs for a 2.3 percent decrease

• San Antonio added 17,900 jobs for a 2.9 percent increase

• Memphis, Tenn. lost 10,800 jobs for a 1.7 percent decrease

• Albany, NY remained stagnant.


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